Saturday, November 19, 2011

Natural Gas Shortage Leading to Bleak Future???

Gas is the driving force behind the economic growth in Pakistan. Supply shortage and bleak availability outlook is forcing Pakistan towards stagnation.

Pakistan currently produces nearly 4 bcfd ‘billion cubic feet per day’ natural gas. Bulk is consumed for power generation “29%”, followed by industrial sector “26%” and (17%) by fertilizer sector.

As per ISGS Analysis, based on SSGCL & SNGPL data, demand is approx 6 bcfd and it outstrips supply resulting in shortfall of 2 bcfd. Industrial sector faces the grunt of gas supply curtailment in winter and currently industrial sector on SNGPL line facing 3 days gas supply cut and expected to further exacerbate.

Based on current gas supply source, it is projected that supply by 2020 will be approx 2.1 bcfd whereas demand will touch 8.5 bcfd, resulting in shortage of 6.4 bcfd.

To address growing gas supply shortage “gas is approx 50% of the energy mix of Pakistan” govt is implementing strategy and it includes;

  1. Increasing domestic oil & gas exploration and production,
  2. Fast tracking utilization of hydro power potential
  3. Expediting the development of vast local coal reserves
  4. Setting-up new nuclear power plants
  5. Importing piped natural gas from neighboring countries
  6. Importing LNG
  7. Importing electricity from neighboring countries
  8. Exploiting affordable alternate energy resources. The Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline and Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline projects are important components of this strategy

It is anticipated that by 2020 new supply avenues will add 5.6 bcfd (New discoveries 1 bcfd by 2020, 1st LNG ‘Liquefied Natural Gas’ project 0.58 bcfd by 2013, IPI ‘Iran Pakistan India’ gas pipeline first phase 1.06 bcfd by 2015, 2nd LNG ‘Liquefied Natural Gas’ project 0.58 bcfd by 2015, TAPI “Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India” 1.34 bcfd by 2015 and another 1.06 bcfd through 2nd phase of IPI by 2017)

The question comes in mind; will Pakistan be able to go ahead with new discoveries in the wake of trouble in Balochistan? Will American influence allow Pakistan to go ahead with IPI? Will peace in Afghanistan be achieved in near future to make TAPI a reality?

Time will tell but it seems tough and time is running out for us.


Webhosting Pakistan said...

Well time is really short and running fast, and we need a good and honest leader and govt to get Pakistan out from such issues, and concentrate of resources within the country rather then the making pipelines with other countries.

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maha khan said...

Its interesting